A few observations and then a conclusion . . .
Some of the newer foundations, like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, don't have an arts and culture giving component. Since these new foundations tend to have a lot of influence in the field, I'm willing to wager that other new foundations will not have much of an arts section.
Foundations who do have arts giving are going to place an increased emphasis on funding partnerships and collaborations.
They are going to be far more likely to give $30,000 to an collaboration that has three arts organizations involved then they are to give those three organizations $10,000 each on their own merits.
Corporate philanthrophy is going to emulate the Chase and Pepsi giving models which really mix marketing and giving together. No matter how you feel about Pepsi Refresh or Chase Giving, it's pretty clear that this is where the corporate giving world is moving.
Competition for "high net worth" individuals who give to the arts is going to be more intense then ever.
I think that's a reasonable set of observations/predictions
Here's the conclusion . . .
For the next decade, nothing is going to be more important than your ability to get people in the door and then turning a section of your audience into individual donors.
This isn't about cultivating a "rich person", it's about convincing that dentist in your audience to give $1,000 a year, or getting that mid level corporate executive to give $500.
Do programming that excites people, market effectively to get them in and then convert some of them into donors.
It's that simple and that complex.
Those that can do that will thrive, no matter how difficult the economy may be that any particular time.
Those who spend a large amount of time grant writing or chasing corporate dollars will be in a lot of trouble.