The Importance of Having a Working Theory

The default position for almost every thing worth doing is failure.

Want to start a business?  It will probably fail.

Want to go to Harvard?  Probably won't get in.

Want to make a living using your artistic talents?  Probably won't be able to do it.

Some would call that cynicism.  I think embracing the idea of "default  failure" is a key to success.

Let's say your dream is . . . I don't know, to be President.

All the odds are against you.  You're unknown.  You're opponents are going to have more experience and more money.

If you go out there trying to run your presidental campaign like everyone else's you are going to get stomped.

So you take some time to think. 

You develop a working theory about how to avoid the failure that will inevitably hit if you do what everyone else does.

Your opponent's focus on a few big states.

You campaign in all 50.

Your opponent's rely on big donors.

You build a base of smaller donors.

Yes it is going to be harder.  No, it might not work.

But at least it is an idea.

And of course this example applies to the arts!

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If you start a dance it is probably going to fold.

You and your dancers are probably NOT so supremely talented that you will be able to overcome the obstacles that have destroyed organizations bigger and stronger then yours. 

(Note:  And you have no reason to not know what at least 80% of those obstacles are before you start.  Most arts organizations fail for the same basic set of reasons, poor management, low quality art, lack of funding, etc.)

Embrace that.  Accept it. 

Then figure out a working theory that gives you a shot at success IN SPITE of that reality.

The theory doesn't need to be perfect.  You are allowed to figure out things as you go along.

But for heaven's sake . . . at least HAVE A THEORY!

Comments

[Chris Casquilho]

I'll offer a couple of counter-suggestions: first, the default condition may be entropy, in this case disguised as failure. A more insidious outcome is what natural scientists call "failure to thrive." You can start something with real fire and vision and only to find it chugging along in second gear on the shoulder of the highway like an '85 Subaru wagon. What are the causes of "failure to thrive" and how do you stave them off?

Thought the second: I'm attempting to apply Jim Collins theories of organizational success to art management following the ideas in "Good to Great." Collins' asserts that your "operating theory" should be one based on what you can be the best at, which means taking a realistic look at your strengths and weaknesses and determining what your outfit alone has a shot at being the absolute best in the world at. It's a big idea, and I haven't figured out what my outfit can be the best in the world at after four months of thinking and talking - but we'll get it one of these days.

[Adam]

Chris,

If you are down with Good To Great then I suggest you check out his monograph "Good To Great and The Social Sector"

It should give you some help in applying good to great practices to your nonprofit.

And as for the best in the world idea, just remember that most of the examples in the book didn't find their "best place" for quite a while. The trick is to survive (and maybe even thrive) long enough to figure things out.